You have to understand the surgical precision with which Democrats in the legislature strengthened their political standing, weakened Republicans and limited the number of real choices voters have in this years general election.
The story is buried within the deposition of John Davis, director of the private nonpartisan organization called NCFEE, which analyzes state legislative districts, among many things. Davis has proven himself an expert at examining voter registration, voting history in North Carolina elections in each district and a number of other factors, both objective and subjective. He is good at predicting the outcomes of North Carolina political contests once the candidates and issues are known. How good? He picked 193 out of 200 races last time.
Among the things Davis demonstrates is that about 70 percent of legislative campaigns are over before they begin — and that’s in the primary season. By the general election, 85 percent of the races are over before they begin.
How? Davis has observed that most legislative districts are drawn to favor Democrats, Republicans or black candidates. “Those are very easy to call,” he testified in the deposition.
Davis can look at the registration of a district and draw accurate conclusions. A Republican has an advantage in a district that has at least 35 percent Republican registration. But a Democrat needs a district with at least 55 percent Democratic registration to have an advantage. Why?
“The reason Republicans in North Carolina only need 35 percent is because this is a state full of conservative Democrats who regularly vote Republican,” Davis said.
But more important, Davis has mastered the art and science of figuring out whether a district is predisposed to a certain result. Prior to the 2002 legislature, he said, House and Senate legislative districts were slightly more favorable to Republicans. Of the 170 legislative seats, 58 favored Democrats, 66 favored Republicans, and 46 were swing districts where voters had clear choices and could make a difference.
Last year’s redistricting changed things dramatically. With the new maps, 87 of the legislative districts favor Democrats, 63 favor Republicans, but only 20 districts are really competitive.
Broken down by chamber, the House now has 59 Democratic districts, 47 Republican districts and 14 competitive districts. The Senate has 28 Democratic districts, 16 Republican districts and just six competitive districts where voters have real choices.
If Davis is right, and he has an excellent record of calling legislative races, then the impact of the 2002 redistricting is not just that Democrats enriched themselves. The real story is that Democrats reduced the number of districts where voters truly have a choice. Until recently, voters had a real choice to make in 46 districts, but if this plan stands, the number of competitive districts drops to 20.
This is why many analysts believe that legislators have ignored the needs of the public in drawing new districts. Legislators have chosen their voters, rather than the other way around.
“The number of real choices has been severely reduced,” Davis said in an interview. “It was truly a masterful job of (Democrats) seizing the advantage for the next 10 years.”
They did it in a precise manner: They reduced Republican voting strength in Democratic districts and beefed up Republican strength in GOP districts. And they added black voters, traditionally the most loyal Democratic voters, to Democratic districts. Both these actions would help the Democrats, hurt the Republicans and reduce the number of districts that would be truly competitive.
No wonder Republicans are making such a strong effort to stop the legislative elections and have the redistricting plans declared unconstitutional. If they cannot persuade the N.C. Supreme Court to order new maps drawn, Republicans face holding the short end of the legislative stick for at least 10 years.
Its interesting the Republicans now oppose packing districts with certain voters. In the 1980s and `90s, they used the technique where possible to create majority-minority districts that would favor black candidates. By doing so, they made certain districts blacker and others whiter, and saw Republicans win a lot of those whiter districts.
The 2002 redistricting has sought to turn the tables, packing Republican voters into districts that makes them even stronger Republican districts, thus leaving the remaining districts more Democratic and more likely to keep Democrats in power.
The Davis deposition includes an interesting exchange about what the Democrats did in preserving power. When an attorney asked whether it was unusual for a party to do such a thing, Davis answered, “The party in power always seeks to gain the advantage for the next 10 years… (Democrats) seized power for their party for the next 10 years. That’s the way we do it in a democracy. You seize power.”
Davis does not argue that this is good or bad. He says he neither approves nor disapproves, but observes, “This is the way it’s done in America. It’s the American way. There’s nothing about it that smacks of something evil. It’s our system.”
