A recent Mason-Dixon poll suggests that Democrat John Kerry, if he selects North Carolina favorite son John Edwards as his running mate, might be able to defeat President George W. Bush here and grab the state’s 15 electoral votes.
The poll, taken in mid-May, showed Bush with a 7 percentage point lead over Kerry in a head-to-head race, with 48 percent of North Carolina voters supporting the president. But with Edwards added as the Democrats’ vice presidential nominee, and assuming Dick Cheney remains as Bush’s running mate, the race tightens to 46-45 Bush.
The numbers aren’t that different than those leading up to the 1992 presidential race.
At that time, Bill Clinton believed that he had a solid chance to take North Carolina. He and running mate Al Gore dashed through the state on a couple of occasions during their bus tour of the country, hoping to shore up support.
Clinton and the Democrats ultimately were disappointed, losing the state by less than a percentage point to the elder George Bush.
Since then, Democrats running for president haven’t paid much attention to North Carolina, and they have been resoundingly defeated here.
While Clinton was trouncing Sen. Bob Dole elsewhere in 1996, the incumbent president lost North Carolina by 5 percentage points. Four years later, 56 percent of North Carolinians voted for President Bush even as Gore won the popular vote in the nation as a whole.
The last Democrat to win North Carolina was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Given the fact that the last non-Southern Democrat to win the presidency period was John Kennedy in 1960, Kerry’s chances don’t look promising.
Still, the recent poll had Washington’s chattering classes talking last week.
The results stoked speculation that Edwards could emerge as Kerry’s choice for vice president. Some also saw the numbers as another example of the president’s increasing political vulnerability.
But while commentators focused on comparisons between the candidates and potential running mates, some other numbers likely grabbed the attention of political consultants. Besides the comparisons, the pollsters asked North Carolinians about how they viewed the candidates, “favorably, unfavorably or neutral.”
Thirty-eight percent of North Carolinians had an unfavorable view of the president, compared to 49 percent who view him favorably. A similar percentage of state voters viewed Bush favorably in November 2000, but his unfavorable numbers are substantially higher than they were at the same time four years ago.
That kind of trend, if it continues, isn’t good news for Republicans.
Political consultants know that support can sometimes be soft. Opposition usually isn’t. Voters are often motivated to go to the polls to vote against a candidate whom they dislike.
Even so, if history is any lesson, President Bush will overcome any current voter discontent and win North Carolina. And Kerry will stay away, spending his time and resources on better bets.
Scott Mooneyham writes for the Capitol Press Association. He may be reached at smooneyh@ncinsider.com
