By Tom Campbell: NC Spin

For some inexplicable reason, columnists feel the need to make predictions for the coming new year, so here are mine.

North Carolina’s economy will continue to improve but will not grow at the go-go pace of the mid-1990s, owing to the large number of shuttered factories. Our state will be forced to slow the record amounts of economic incentives to new industry due to lack of money and court cases.

The big story of the legislative session starting Jan. 26 will be the projected budget deficit. Once again our legislators will fail to deal realistically with the structural budget problems of North Carolina.

Do not count on the proposed tax sunsets to occur this year. Also, expect a 25-cent per pack tax on cigarettes. There will be proposals for a tax on services, but the business lobby will beat them back. State employees will get the equivalent of a 2 percent increase but pressures on the health plan could negate the raises. Education enrollment increases will be funded but little else will be done in education, except the increased money for low wealth schools ordered by the courts.

Medicaid will reach a crisis point as the triple factors of reimbursements, services, and eligibility clash head-on, but don’t expect much more of a solution than a bandage, most likely reduced reimbursements to the medical community. Counties want the state to assume total control and expense; the state wants the counties to be in charge. Few want to tighten eligibility or reduce services. Medical malpractice will once again be on the table but little will happen.

The education lottery will fail in the House because of a coalition of African Americans and Republicans. The proposed moratorium on the death penalty will get lots of play but will not pass; a compromise solution will be to form a study commission on the issue of the death penalty.

We will see the genesis for reorganization of state government, to include the revision of our tax codes, the number of elective statewide officers, and consolidation of state agencies. It won’t go far but will be a start.

The state Supreme Court will uphold the Board of Elections’ decision for a statewide re-election for the commissioner of agriculture, which Britt Cobb will ultimately win. In a surprising development, the court will also rule for a re-election in the superintendent of public instruction race, negating the questionable provisional ballots.

Expect at least one shocking indictment resulting from investigations being conducted by the FBI in our state. It is most likely to come from the Greene County prison investigations or the video poker investigations. North Carolina will lose at least one of the three high-profile cases now on appeal. The Cherokee Indians will get table games at Harrah’s Casino, taking advantage of the rising popularity of poker.

Senate President Pro Tem Marc Basnight will continue to be the most powerful politician in North Carolina. House Speaker Jim Black will enjoy solo leadership but will need a coalition to rule. Look for the Legislative Black Caucus to flex their muscles this year. They are unhappy with Democrats, especially Jim Black, and will make their presence known.

Last year we got 20 of our predictions right, 11 wrong, and two are still undecided. Let’s see how well we do in 2005.

Happy New Year!