Here is one thing. Some people are still expressing their amazement at the success of the North Carolina House of Representatives’ co-speakership. Earlier this year, faced with a deadlock of 60 members in each party, a coalition of House Democrats and a handful of Republicans cobbled together a compromise in which Democrat Jim Black and Republican Richard Morgan served as co-speakers.
Most of us expected this unholy coalition would quickly break up under the pressures of partisan political differences.
We were wrong.
In fact, the House worked better than it has in years –– not so much in the results as in a more collegial operating process.
Why? In the three previous sessions, whether the Republicans or the Democrats had more members, their control was illusory. Their majorities were so slim and the inner party differences so bitter that the majority party really never had working control.
The Morgan-Black coalition, however, turned out to have a much more solid real majority. This control enabled the co-speakers, when they could agree with each other as they often did, to provide effective leadership. Some observers say that the mildly progressive, moderate-conservative approach that the co-speakers took was more representative of North Carolina public opinion than monopoly control by either party would have been.
As successful as the coalition arrangement was, some observers are sure it will break up when the legislature comes back in special session this fall to try to craft a new redistricting plan that the North Carolina Supreme Court has mandated.
These skeptics anticipate a partisan political battle royal between Republicans and Democrats, a battle that will break up the coalition that supported the co-speakers.
On the other hand, there are reasons to predict that the coalition will run a relatively smooth redistricting process.
To understand why this is possible, we have to remember two main rules that legislators follow when they revise the districts of their members.
The first rule is incumbent protection. Every legislator who has any influence will be working hard to ensure that his or her district will be at least as friendly as it is now and, if possible, even friendlier.
The second rule is that the political party in control of the legislature will try to draw districts that will preserve and, if possible, strengthen its control.
In the case of the North Carolina House, neither political party is in control. Control is in the hands of a coalition made up of both Democrats and Republicans. The coalition leaders, Morgan and Black, know that the best chance to continue in their leadership positions is to preserve the coalition after the 2004 elections.
Why? If the Republicans take solid control of the House in the next election, it would be difficult, if not impossible, for Morgan to gain enough Republican support to be elected speaker.
Given the continuing trouble with dissidents, Black would also face a challenge should the Democrats gain a solid majority.
But, if the House should continue to be equally divided, or very closely divided, the co-speakership arrangement could continue to govern.
If Black, Morgan and the majority of their coalition partners agree with this line of thinking, they will work together to formulate a redistricting plan that protects the coalition and its supporters. Such a plan would probably be very close to the current controversial judicially imposed districts.
There will have to be some variations, of course, to try to meet the constitutional requirements outlined by the North Carolina Supreme Court. And there may be some effort to draw a district or two that will take out members who have caused the coalition particular trouble.
Otherwise, though, you may see Morgan and Black again working in harmony on a redistricting plan that, to the extent possible, will preserve the status quo.
D.G. Martin lives in Chapel Hill and hosts UNC-TV’s “North Carolina Bookwatch,” which airs Sundays at 5 p.m. This week’s guest is Greensboro science fiction writer Orson Scott Card, who will discuss his new book, “Shadow Puppets.” Contact Martin via e-mail at dmartin13@nc.rr.com.
